You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet was released by BTO my senior year of high school in the Fall of 1974.
Here we are nearly half a century later and it’s become my theme now that March 10th is here without a resolution to the Russia/Ukraine Mess (RUM – BTW, you may want a stiff drink after reading this).
We have so many world leaders now (including here) that hold law or poli sci degrees and know nothing about how things work in real life.
Even if the RUM issue gets resolved soon, it’s now too late to stop the ramifications. Early March is when crops need to be planted in Ukraine – completed by the 10th. Obviously, that didn’t happen.
Some countries will be affected more than others – especially in Europe and the Middle East. The results of the crop loss include higher prices at a minimum and increased food shortages and hunger.
Ukraine is a major supplier of potash and natural gas is used to create other components of fertilizer.
Ask a farmer about cost increases – fertilizer already costs a lot more this year. That’s going to mean higher food prices. Shortage of fertilizer means less crop production.
Second verse, same as the first.
Less crop production means higher prices at a minimum and increased food shortages and hunger.
Bread and circuses work wonders in keeping a populace docile, but no matter how abundant the circuses are, without bread there are uprisings that have led to riots and wars throughout history.
We are already feeling the effects of the RUM with higher oil and gas prices. Add turmoil in the Middle East and we may long for the day that gasoline was only $4 a gallon.
The energy impacts are bad enough, but did you know:
Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium and second largest supplier of platinum.
Think that doesn’t impact you?
Both these metals are used to manufacture catalytic converters.
That means at least higher prices for the converters and possibly shortages.
I’ve already seen reports during the pandemic of increased theft of catalytic converters. These aren’t cheap to replace, and you have to have one in order to pass inspection and renew your auto registration.
With the higher prices for the converters, I expect thefts to increase too. The increased thefts result in increased demand which in turn causes increased prices.
But wait – there’s more:
There’s a plant in Ukraine that produces 70% of the world’s (90% of the United States’) semiconductor grade neon.
This is necessary for the lasers used in the chip making process. While manufacturers have a supply on hand, if production and shipping of neon isn’t resumed in the near future – it will impact chip production to a larger degree than the chip shortages we experienced that last couple of years.
These are just the ramifications I’ve seen so far. Stay tuned.
Eventually the RUM situation will calm down.
Secondary resources may become available, but those just can’t be increased at the flip of a switch.
Let’s hope we survive the ignorance and stupidity of our politicians.
Get your popcorn while it’s available and affordable, because it should be the show of a lifetime because:
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
Spot on. Yes, we've survived stupidity before, but not at the nuclear level. And some of us may continue to do so. But, if the unthinkable happens, few will be around to talk about it. It is human nature to think things will continue to continue. That's why there's a war in Ukraine to begin with.
We have long survived the stupidity of our politicians. We will continue to do so. I do think this round is gonna hurt a lot more than the previous ones though.